Polyamory in geopolitical times: Why Europe needs new lovers and must lead the way

For decades, Europe kept one steady love: the United States. Together we shared a bed of security, a table of trade, and a foundation of shared values. From time to time, we clashed over defence budgets or the regulation of big tech, but belief in a common future always prevailed. It looked like a complex marriage, for better and for worse.

Today, this transatlantic relationship is under existential strain. And that is not only due to Trump’s whims toward Europe. The United States has long been flirting with other parts of the world, quite openly since 2011 when then-President Obama launched his pivot to Asia.

Our relationship with the U.S. had long ceased to be exclusive, though the EU clung to that illusion for years. Now the realisation is growing that, more than ever, we must go in search of new lovers in geopolitically turbulent times if we are to keep our place on the global stage.

There is still plenty of untapped potential to find love for Europe elsewhere. Think of India, not only the largest democracy but, since 2023, also the most populous country on earth with more than 1.4 billion inhabitants. The recently announced new European strategy for India is a first step toward a deeper relationship with a country still seeking its place in the world, somewhere between hard power politics and economic progress.

Especially now that Trump is pushing Prime Minister Modi more and more into the hands of Russia and China, we must highlight Europe’s power of attraction.

Elsewhere, too, partners are looking for avenues to sustainable growth. If you look at economic power as calculated by the IMF, ASEAN, a kind of European Union of Southeast Asian countries, ranks sixth after the U.S., China, the EU, India, and Japan. It is the fastest-growing region in the world.

Countries such as Vietnam, Indonesia, and Malaysia are rising regional powers with enormous trade potential thanks to growing middle classes, and Singapore, as a technological heavyweight, has exceptional strengths. We already have trade agreements with Indonesia, Singapore and Vietnam, and others being negotiated. The next step could be an overarching EU-ASEAN agreement.

It is also crucial to become more active than ever on the fastest-growing continent in the world, namely Africa. Europe has too often been paternalistic and too quick to wag a finger. Now it must pursue a mature, equal partnership based on shared economic benefits that can be the key to stability and prosperity on both sides of the Mediterranean.

D8–“Coalition of the reasonable”

Finally, we should also think of Europe’s traditional like-minded partners in many international conflicts. Europe would do well to take the lead in a “coalition of the reasonable”, including Canada, Switzerland, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand. Together, these six countries would theoretically form the fourth-largest economy in the world.

In line with what former NATO Secretary-General Anders Rasmussen describes, the EU, together with these countries and the United Kingdom, could form the D8 in a new, multipolar world.

It would be a democratic alliance in which economic coercion or blackmail against one member would trigger an immediate and proportionate response from all, by analogy with NATO’s famous Article 5. Such a “coalition of the reasonable” would be not only a group with shared European values but also an economic superpower.

There are thus many potential lovers on the menu, each with advantages and drawbacks. And this is precisely where Europe must not be recklessly naive. With some partners we will not be able to tick every box on the checklist, and sometimes the head must prevail over the heart.

That requires a new and delicate balance, and Europe still has work to do in its internal affairs. A new love can grow only with sufficient self-love, with a stronger single market and more room for manoeuvre in its foreign policy. In capricious times you must dare to choose, pragmatically and realistically, without throwing our values overboard.

Rivals are appearing on the horizon. Autocrats from Russia and China have long been performing their seduction dance. They may present themselves as lovers, but their true motives are less than sincere. We see this in Central Africa, where critical minerals are ruthlessly exploited, and chaos is created.

It is up to Europe to crowd out these toxic relationships, with sincere partnerships and deep investments that deliver long-term stability and economic growth in those regions.

Regained self-love

Polyamory demands more than simply collecting new phone numbers and striking quick deals. A new mindset is required: respectfully investing in multiple relationships at once, without demanding exclusivity or endlessly forcing our own preferences. It requires flexibility, patience, and the ability to turn jealousy and mistrust into trust and shared interest.

The EU must learn to seduce and to listen, not only to dictate. And to seduce, it must first and foremost work on itself.

The era of monogamous geopolitics is over. Europe can no longer hide behind Washington’s strong arm, nor allow itself to be intimidated by Moscow and Beijing.

It is lead or be led, which is why Europe must once again take the initiative. It must master the art of polyamorous diplomacy: cherishing multiple partners, with renewed self-love, without losing its core values.