Sanctions Are the Best Leverage We Have Over Putin

The security landscape is changing rapidly. It is clearly up to us - Europeans - to make a generational investment in our security. It is up to us - Europeans - to take the lead in supporting Ukraine. It is clearer than ever: We hold our future and security in our hands.

One of the most powerful tools at our disposal remains the sanctions – economic, financial, and political – that we have imposed on the aggressor state, Russia. Do not believe the Kremlin propagandists who try to tell you that the sanctions are not working. On the contrary, EU sanctions are working - they are a powerful tool to constrain Russian aggression and support Ukraine. Sanctions are not just economic measures; they limit Russia’s ability to finance its war machine and access key technology and components needed to produce weapons. This is not something abstract – sanctions are limiting the number of missiles, shells, and bullets that Russia can produce and use against Ukraine. Sanctions are saving lives.

But for sanctions to be truly effective, we must enforce them, prevent their evasion and circumvention, and target the sectors critical to financing Russia's war of aggression. While we have just adopted the EU’s 16th package, preparations for the 17th must already begin. One of the most urgent challenges we face is the circumvention of sanctions with the so-called ‘shadow fleet’.

But for sanctions to be truly effective, we must enforce them, prevent their evasion and circumvention, and target the sectors critical to financing Russia's war of aggression.

These old, uninsured and unregulated vessels allow Russia to continue exporting oil, undermining the price cap mechanism and providing the Kremlin with much-needed revenue. The EU has already sanctioned more than 150 vessels. We must intensify enforcement by pressuring flag states to deregister these ships and working with international maritime organisations to strengthen restrictions. Otherwise, Russia’s 'shadow fleet' is a security and environmental catastrophe waiting to happen in the Baltic Sea.

We have taken major steps in the right direction, and we should stay the course. Since the start of the full-scale invasion, EU-Russia trade has gone down by 74%, dropping from €260 billion in 2021 to €68 billion. Russian revenue from oil sales has fallen by 90%, while gas imports from Russia to the EU have dropped from 45% of the market to just 13%. Russia's war economy is shrinking, inflation is rising, interest rates have reached 21% and almost 40% of Russian public spending is now on the military, cannibalising the civilian economy. The estimated loss to the Russian economy due to sanctions is around $450 billion. In short, the Russian economy is neither productive nor sustainable. We must keep up the pressure and not give up, even as other G7 partners consider abandoning their sanctions policies.

Sanctions are not just about responding to active aggression; they are a long-term leverage tool. That is why it would be a grave mistake to lift them prematurely. A possible ceasefire must not be used as an excuse to reduce economic pressure on Russia. On the contrary, maintaining and even increasing sanctions after a ceasefire would ensure that Russia is held accountable and lacks the resources to resume its aggression in the future. Moreover, there is currently no sign that Russia is ready for a lasting peace. Russia's war aims have not changed. Russia’s war aims have not changed. We have not yet done enough to change Putin’s calculations.

Sanctions are not just about responding to active aggression; they are a long-term leverage tool. That is why it would be a grave mistake to lift them prematurely. A possible ceasefire must not be used as an excuse to reduce economic pressure on Russia.

Finally, Russia should be paying directly for its crimes of aggression – Europe must seize several hundred billion euros in frozen Russian assets and use them to arm and rebuild Ukraine.

It is in our indisputable interest to help defend Ukraine and prevent further Russian advances. Sanctions give us and our Ukrainian friends significant leverage – we must make the most of it by keeping them in place for as long as necessary, whatever the external and internal pressure to lift them is, to help bring a just and lasting peace to Ukraine.