11/10/2011

Challenges for future enlargement to the Western Balkans
Croatia provides new impetus

By Lada Jurica, Croatian Press Adviser

The approach that the EU has taken towards the countries of the Western Balkans has been that of strict conditionality combined with the commitments taken at the 2003 Thessaloniki Summit giving the region European perspective.

After the historic enlargement in 2004 and its symbolic narrative of reunification of a divided continent, the reunification arguments begun fading and the general mood surrounding enlargement became more conflicting. The policy of enlargement, the EU's most successful policy, needed to be placed on new footing. In order for it to remain an important tool for democratisation, its credibility needed to be reinforced through strict compliance with EU membership criteria.

In this context the Croatian case has been very important. The conclusion of Croatian EU accession negotiations under the Hungarian Presidency has given new impetus to the enlargement process. Croatia has inaugurated a new model of enlargement that will be followed by the rest; the 'burden of proof' has shifted squarely onto the candidate country and Croatia is regarded as the first to set an example for others to follow. The timely Croatian accession will play a crucial role for EU aspirations in other countries in the region.

In this year's Progress Reports, a tool to evaluate progress made by candidates and potential candidates on a yearly basis, the European Commission is expected to address whether or not candidate status will be given to Serbia and the possible start of accession negotiations with Montenegro. The enlargement package is up for adoption by the Commission on Wednesday 12 October.

Albania

After a considerable period of oppositional boycott of the Albanian Parliament, which begun in the aftermath of the 2009 parliamentary elections, the Parliament has finally resumed work. The boycott had led to the European Commission issuing a negative opinion on Albania's EU membership bid. Now that Albania has succeeded in solving the crisis, the European Commission can contemplate concrete steps in moving forward with Albanian relations.

Bosnia-and-Herzegovina

With no Government in place for exactly a year, and the three constituent peoples not seeing eye-to-eye on many of the elements of the country's functioning, the situation in Bosnia-and-Herzegovina (BIH) could be described as stagnant at best.

The 1995 Dayton Peace Accords ended the war in Bosnia-and-Herzegovina but a suitable institutional framework has yet to be implemented. The key issue would appear to be electoral reform, which could insure that the impasse in forming the BIH government does not occur in the future.

The European Commission had insisted on three main pieces of legislation to be implemented in the past year which would allow the entry into force of the Stabilisation and Association Agreement, namely: the state aid law, the census law and changes to the Constitution to reflect the European Court of Human Rights ruling in the case of Sejdic and Finci v. Bosnia and Herzegovina. None of the required legislation has been passed and there is a danger of BIH falling further behind its neighbours.

FYROM

The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia was the first of the Stabilisation and Association countries out of the blocks, being the first to receive EU candidate status in 2005, but has yet to commence membership talks. In October 2009 the European Commission recommended opening EU accession negotiations with FYROM, the formal decision to be taken by Council.

A mutually acceptable solution to the name dispute with Greece could go far in re-launching the FYROM EU membership bid.

Montenegro

Montenegro was granted status as an EU candidate country in November 2010. At that time the European Commission came out with a 7-point blueprint for reform before the country can be given a start date for accession talks. The 7 requirements mainly refer to the Copenhagen political criteria, requiring the stability of institutions guaranteeing, notably, the rule of law.

The Montenegrin Government has, after months of negotiations with the opposition, reached an agreement on the reform of electoral law. It remains to be seen whether progress will be deemed sufficient to permit the Commission to recommend a date for the start of accession negotiations with the Council.

Serbia

Serbia's efforts to capture and extradite fugitives wanted by the International Criminal Tribunal in the Hague (ICTY), General Ratko Mladić, wanted for his involvement in the Srebrenica massacre, and General Goran Hadžić, wanted for war crimes committed in Vukovar and Eastern Slavonia, have been warmly welcomed by the international community as a sign that Serbia was ready and willing to come to terms with its volatile past.

The pace of relations between the EU and Serbia will depend largely on the recent tensions with Kosovo which have led to a deterioration in relations. Strong neighbourly relations are one of the prominent conditions in the Stabilisation and Association Agreement.

Serbia is hoping to receive EU candidate status in December from the European Council. As part of the enlargement package, the European Commission will issue its opinion on Serbia's EU application.

Kosovo

While Kosovo has yet to be recognised by 5 EU Member States, it maintains a clear European perspective. After proclaiming independence on 17 February 2009, Kosovo institutions assumed effective governance over the territory of Kosovo except the north where the jurisdiction was challenged by parallel Serbian structures. Similarly, so was the EU civilian mission EULEX. Although floated as an idea by actors both among the Kosovo Serbs and in Serbia, the EU would not support the partition of Kosovo because it would set a dangerous precedent.

Escalation in tensions in the north of Kosovo has shown that the status quo in the north is untenable in the long term. The EU will continue to insist on constructiveness from both Serbia and Kosovo, particularly to continue dialogue on technical issues. However such dialogue has achieved little success thus far, as witnessed by the collapse of the freedom of movement deal on 1 July 2011.

Further democratisation in Kosovo is needed with corresponding EU efforts to ease the life of the Kosovo people. The people of Kosovo are the only citizens in the Western Balkans that have yet to benefit from a liberalised visa regime.

Role of the EU?

The EU needs to continue intensifying its engagement in this region for three reasons:

• 1) Own Credibility

The Thessaloniki commitments given to the countries of the Western Balkans ensure the perspective is maintained, but is subject to strict conditionality namely: concrete steps in relations with the EU in exchange for reforms. The EU needs to make sure that the promise of full membership remains alive in order for that formula to work. Additionally, the EU needs to continue to act as a vehicle for democratisation across its borders.


• 2) Stability and Security

In a region where the stabilising role of the European Union is still very important, the EU has a responsibility to fully take on that role. The region now finds itself surrounded by EU countries and any security issue in the region would invariably have effects on the EU space.


• 3) If the EU does not, somebody else will.

Next steps

Once the European Commission has adopted the enlargement package, the European Parliament and its Foreign Affairs Committee will take a position on the prospects for each country over the next months.